A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
