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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a form of apology. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence wins the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

However this year's field is distinctly different. The group of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime underperformers improving collectively. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and fun season, he's competing with five other elite coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a typical season!

Where his case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback had the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still